The cumulative effect of fate

29 November, 2014 0 No tags 0

Fate has a main characteristic: its cumulative effect. As we have seen snowflakes accumulate until the avalanche is generated. As you can see, the flakes are falling on the mountain and build until the snowflake falls destabilizing mass and creates an avalanche. An explosive and uncontrolled event.

Since I’m writing this post, let’s move this concept to the publishing world. A blog is sold in different outlets, and sold unit by unit. At first a small number of readers will read it, and if they like, they’ll begin to recommend it to other people that will do the same, until a critical point (I don’t know what is) that people are rushing to bookstores to buy it, and then goes in the media, as the publishing phenomenon of the season, which will once again feed the growing circle. The avalanche is served. The same goes for pandemics, and all the products you have at home.

Scalability. As we have seen, the success of a blog, a movie, or a song depends on the contagion effect. The same goes for technology products, such as what happened with the iPod, or the Windows operating system. In addition, these products create community, so important for the development of a project.

There are a number of professions and scalable businesses and others are simply not. Scalable professions are writer or musician. These guys do not need to play or create their product every time you sell, they can store it. Allowing the sale process to be independent from the process of creation. A physician or consultant professions are not scalable. Their income depends on his presence to be generated, probably will do well after 30 years of practicing, but never become rich in one day. Elvis Presley has exceeded 1,000 million albums sold since 1980. Elvis Presley died in 1977, has been dead 33 years, but continues to generate huge amounts of money.

Scalability and Business. We must focus on the scalable part of our business: product design and services, strategies, and management methods. The success of our production- Western economic model has come from the hand of the property of scalability. Understand this property has allowed us to specialize in the creative side of things, which is the production of concepts and ideas. Our success as a business model is to separate the less scalable components and assign them to feel satisfied with being paid by the hour as China does.

So we have to invest more in the design of a pair of shoes, or a computer, than in its manufacture. In the economy of the twenty-first century will be the benefits of ideas. But ideas need both the opportunity and luck. This type of scalable orientation produces a world of extremes. In this world of extremes, a few (products, services, or professional) are taking almost all success.

Some interesting questions

22 November, 2014 0 No tags 0

 

If you think you’ve got my point, sure you know to answer these simple questions. Check if you know an answer to these questions, do not limit yourself to read them and move on. Hook a pen and paper and try to answer them, and see what happens. One track, the pattern of operation is the same for all. It is universally applicable 😉

  • How many apples gives an apple tree?
  • How a spider catches insects?
  • Why in a pond there are no neon pink bugs?
  • What use has a fly?
  • When you throw a coin What is the probability of getting heads or tails?
  • Why some people succeed or ruin?
  • Why are we so afraid to start any project?

As ants find its food

15 November, 2014 0 No tags 0

Nature knows how to manage the randomness, the disorder and the chaos, because the foundation of our nature is chaotic in itself.

This summer I had suffer from an invasion of ants in the garden. Before exterminate them, I’ve been watching them. I observed how they created endless highways where they will circulate. The best observation I made was to see how while some were circulating in one direction and some circulated in another, the antennas are rubbed to exchange information. That information is what leads them to where the food is.

But that is the present. What is interesting is to think about the past. In what has led them to find that source of food, afterwards hundreds of them will collaborate in cutting and transporting to their home. Because ants do not have a central command and control, and do not know statistics or mathematical functions.

It’s spring, the sun begins to warm and the ants begin to uncover and clean their nest. The challenge of the new season begins. A priori, they do not know where they will find food. This is what is particularly interesting. How to know where they will find their food sources, they have to manage uncertainty, fate.

How do they do it? Increasing the chances of finding food. Launch hundreds of partners outside the anthill without specific address. Here is the first key: They send out of the safety of the nest, the amount of ants they are willing to lose.

The second key: Quantity is throwing out the right amount to avoid jeopardizing the viability of the ant and its social structure. Many find nothing, other die and not return. But what they know (what the ant system knows) is that some will find other food sources, and will guide the other ants for transport it back home.

The conclusion: Ants (the ant system) know how to transform a lack of knowledge and information into decisions that allow survival.

Here’s how they handle the uncertainty, disorder, assuming you have a limited time to find food (the warmer months), assuming that they will have losses, and that these will be needed. Which are necessary to find veins of food outweigh the small losses that have occurred due to the risks assumed. I never thought that these tiny critters will teach me so much, but my patience has a limit, and the day come and I fumigate. Rest in peace those of my garden. I’ve been a black swan.

Ants do not know of statistical functions. Not have a central command and control. Furthermore, they do not need one. The behavior of an ant (like other natural systems) contains the operating pattern that shows how systems survive in environments of high uncertainty, and how to manage it with the utmost confidence.

 

Luck and skills

8 November, 2014 0 No tags 0

In our world it is very common to confuse luck with skills. We live under the effects of this misunderstanding, and may be catastrophic.

We often have the mistaken impression that a decision is a good decision when we reach the desired results. Of course, luck had nothing to do with it; it was our vision, our painstaking calculations, our impeccable strategy and way of doing. But when we do not achieve what we wanted, we always say the same thing: we had bad luck, impossible to foresee that or the other.

I remember when I studied the master one of the professors taught us to handle the Stat graphics, a powerful software sales forecasting, based on moving averages and other mathematical calculations, all based on past results. It was like trying to drive looking only in the rearview mirror. The problem is that the guy thought he was teaching us something useful. A complete nonsense. We cannot make predictions supporting ourselves on past data.

Sales projections must be based on actual benefits you are developing and are designed to meet real demands. Or even better a system of trial and error. There is no other way, as we will explain in future posts.

 

What you see and what you do not see

4 November, 2014 0 No tags 0

Surely you’ve heard of these guys: Richard Branson (founder of Virgin), Bill Gates (Microsoft founder), Larry Ellison (The founder of Oracle? who once bought a Mig 25), Sara Boyle, Donald Trump…

All have one thing in common: they are global figures, types of inordinate success with deep pockets. Hard-working, visionary, persevering, with people skills, and whatever other adjective anyone wants to add. Most provably all this is true.

What happens is that for every one of these people who succeed there are thousands of people also tireless workers, visionary, persevering, with people skills, and whatever other adjective anyone wants to add, but have been less successful in their projects (personal or professional). These do not appear in Forbes magazine, and fill the pages of magazines and newspapers. Just because it is impossible to look at the cemetery and tell all projects with less success (not unsuccessful).

What we actually do is to look the top of the iceberg, the visible part (which as you know is the mole fraction of the ice). It conceals us of seeing the total sample of individuals, professionals who initiated projects. If we would see the entire sample, we will realize is normal that only a small part reaches success in an exaggerated (and random) way.

Summarizing: The higher the number of professional/projects are in a sector, the greater the likelihood of some of them reaching great success, as a result of luck. That’s what we call being in the right place at the right time.

Think about it. If everything was linear, we would only have more to buy the biography of one of these types, follow it step by step and there you go, all rich, very rich. But there is more, a random component. A component called fate.

The approach is as follows: in a population of professional/ project/product or whatever, a small percentage triumph by chance (luck). That is, a large population of products, professionals, or whatever, almost necessarily produces some winners by sheer luck.

It is not a question of all or nothing; it’s a matter that everything is more random and less linear than it might look. Luck favors those who are prepared, who work harder, and are more persistent, but only that, may not be enough because they are not the final causes of success. In summary: These people are basically adding more chances for good things to happen to them.

We must be on the platform. We must be prepared to get on the few trains passing with opportunities ahead (with options). We must always take risks and losses when it clears that we may incur and limit. That is, we must be willing to bleed without bursting.

Bleeding means losing money, time, and effort (whatever) can be expected. Popping means losing much more than expected.

Popping can make it impossible to get up again, due to the volume of loss. As discussed below, is the inability to return to square one, is you ending up living under a bridge. Popping is the negative black swan.