Rationality Vs. Reality

28 October, 2014 0 No tags 0

There are two extreme categories. The people who believe that everything is rationality and reason (certainties everywhere), and do not accept the concept of fate, and the people who take the limitations and imperfections of reality and try to play with them.

Purely reasonable and rational people are those who do not understand or do not reach to distinguish the texture of reality. They still have not realized that nature has not created any straight line (or very few, I am even unable to put a single example). Other people believe in the limitations and imperfections of reality, our way of thinking and acting.

But the problem is deeper. The education system immerses us in an ideal world and simplified to help us (or so they say) to understand the dynamics of reality and of the composition of our environment. So far so good. The problem is, that after graduation, they forget to tell us the reality that we have been learning at the laboratory is a laboratory reality, simplified and ideal, and that reality does not work the same way. A terrible forgetfulness that can pay dearly.

A coin in the street. We suicidally simplify explanations of reality. We do not discern between the ideal and the real, which brings up serious consequences, and prevents us from appreciating the reality as it is.

If you ask what is the probability of getting one of the two sides when shooting a coin certainly you’ll tell me that one in two. Especially if you’ve been schooled. In fact the higher is your level of training; the more confident you will be, and the more effort will it cost you to get you off the donkey.

This is proof of how the education system with its beautiful and elegant statistical and mathematical formulas has caused you troubles. We will try to open your eyes.

Indeed, a coin thrown into a classroom a school (college, high school, college, business school or any other) will have one of two options (50 %) out of which one of the two sides of the coin will appear. In the sterile world of teaching with their controlled laboratory environments, it is this way.

Following these lines, we will add the texture of reality. Is the perfect coin? Is the perfect environment without any disturbances? Is the coin always shooting in the same way? Is the coin always shooting with the same force pulling with the same hand…?

Well, there you go, a 50 % chance in a classroom is not a 50 % chance on the street. If you do not believe because you have some sort of college degree or a master’s, try it. It’s simple, get any currency and start scoring the rolls you get. After a few runs (be patient) you will see how the thing works differently to how you were taught. Well, it seems that there was something hidden, and we haven’t realized about it before. Reality is complex and messy.

By the way, that small percentage of difference that exists between the head and tail is what we call fate. And that is precisely what we have to appreciate, and we shouldn’t despise.

Note: If you have some knowledge of statistics, can you tell me if you throw an infinite number of times, is 50%. And indeed it is. The problem is that you are not immortal, and therefore cannot throw an infinite number of times. This difference between the two runs to reach the 50% chance is what is called fate. And that is what you have been taught to despise when is all you really need to understand. That’s how it is with us.

On chaos and fate

22 October, 2014 0 , 0

First, we will try to explain how does it works, the ‘party’ you’re at. Let’s try to explain it from a Matrix approach. This post is about how the chaos, the fate, the nonlinearity work in our lives, our work and our money. And it will upend many of your beliefs, beliefs that have formed throughout your life from your conventional learning that has led you at the same time to conventional wisdom, which has a lot of limitations, which makes it mostly useless.

We do not like fate. Besides being unable to accept the fate, we have no desire to accept it. So much so, that we develop meaning about anything. So much to spot people and objects in the clouds, or see the future in the dregs of a cup of tea, and so on. We underestimate the proportion of fate in almost everything.

We live with the illusion of order, believing that planning and forecasting are possible. Believing that we live in a world and a linear reality. Randomness disturbs us, upset us, we find it hard to assimilate and understand. In fact, we spend our lives developing all kinds of forecasts and predictions about the weather, about the economy, our lives and our businesses. Forecasts reveal that we are most of the time wrong; we are unable to estimate and see the future. It’s that simple.

What are disorder and chaos all about? Chaos is the straw that breaks the camel, the snowflake causing an avalanche, or the grain of sand that knocks down a whole. We called chaos theory to the study of nonlinear dynamics; these dynamics are those in which a small factor causes disproportionate responses. These responses can be positive or negative.

If you notice, nothing happens while the mountain gets covered with snow, beautiful scenery, and everything a little whiter than usual. Until a snowflake falls, destabilizes the mass of snow and causes an avalanche (that can be worn and carried, past lives and property in the blink of an eye). Then you realize that the thing was not as stable (linear) as you thought, right?

The complicated part (and impossible) is to determine the cod that will cause the flood, we can see the cumulative effect, but not to discern snowflake will be the culprit. What we can do is choose not to dwell on the mountainside while snowing.

With this post I want to open up a window to try to appreciate the texture of reality around you, which you have probably gone unnoticed until now. I will try to make you understand that the reality around you is much less linear than you think, this actually consists of jumps, small events causing disproportionate size events (whether good or bad).

How do we think. Inductive reasoning is a form of non-deductive reasoning. This reasoning gets general conclusions from premises containing particulars.

For example, from the repeated observation of objects or events of a similar nature, we provide a conclusion for all objects or events of this nature. I noticed a white swan. I have seen a second White Swan. I have observed a third swan was also white.

Conclusion: All swans are white.

This reasoning is generalized to all observed elements are finite (in this case three swans). But the truth of these premises (three observations of white swans) doesn’t make the conclusion a truth (all swans are white). There may be swans that are from other color (black, for example).

Therefore the conclusion of an inductive argument is only likely and, indeed, the information we collect through this mode of reasoning is always uncertain and questionable information.

In a valid inductive reasoning, it could be said that premises and simultaneously deny the conclusion without contradicting. Hitting the conclusion will be a matter of chance. The more data, greater probability of success?

According to Hume: No amount of observations of white swans can infer that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion.

Another example of how we were wrong: I’ve been watching my mother living every day for 43 years. Conclusion: My mother is immortal.

The more developed our predictions are, the more fragile we will become. Some forecasts too elaborate imply that they should develop in a too rigid management, unable to adapt to random environmental changes. That disables you to meet, understand and explore the different options that arise along the way.